Since 2015, Poland has pursued a strict immigration policy due to the national-conservative and anti EU party, Law and Justice. However, the revolutionary change of power on the 15th of October has no prospects of improving terms for immigrants in Europe.

By Cecilie Hemmingsen and Hannah Straily

In 2015 more than 1,2 million people crossed the Mediterranean Sea, trying to get to Europe. A crisis that put great pressure on many countries, and therefore lead to a new agreement in the EU. The purpose of the agreement, Pact on Migration and Asylum, is to distribute immigrants among the different member states, to take away the pressure from individual countries receiving more immigrants than they have capacity to take in, as this is an ongoing issue in Europe. However, Poland has opposed this.

The relation between Poland and the EU has been rather strained for the past 8 years.

Image: Hannah Straily

An election between democracy and dictatorship

Poland’s recent election has been called the most important since the fall of communism. The two key players competing for power were the already ruling national-conservative party, Law and Justice (PiS), against the liberal party, Civic Platform (PO). For the past eight years PiS has been replacing almost all judges from the Municipal Court to the Supreme Court, as well as taken over the Polish public service media:

“If the current government had continued, then Poland would have become a complete dictatorship, as we know it from Hungary. That is why it was called the decisive election,” stated Jens Mørch, former advisor for the Polish pro EU government and chief editor for Polennu.

According to Jens Mørch, the victory of PO with Donald Tusk as the party leader, was absolutely essential to regain Poland’s democracy, and their relation to the EU. Tusk is a former EU president, and served as the prime minister of Poland from 2007 to 2014, which most likely means that Poland will start living up to most of EU’s requirements for member states again:

“There have only really been serious issues between the EU and Poland with Law and Justice in power”, said Mørch.

It was also under Law and Justice, Poland opposed to the new Pact on Migration and Asylum. According to Beata Kempa, Member of the Conservatives and Reformists Group in the European Parliament, Poland’s opposition mainly had to do with concerns about their economy:

“We are not afraid of immigrants, but we think that some of them come here with no intention to work. We don’t want the ones who just want the social security and to be dangerous to other people. It is a completely different kind of migration”, said Kempa.

Before Kempas time in the European Parliament, she was part of the national-conservative, far-right and anti-LGBT party, United Poland, which is a split from the former government party, Law and Justice. Meaning, that she is in opposition to the new government led by Tusk. 

Beata Kempa discussing Poland’s relation to the EU in the European Parliament 

Image: Hannah Straily

Poland’s importance for the member states

According to Jens Mørch, the reason why Poland opposed the Migration Pact under the ruling of PiS was for symbolic reasons, since it would not directly affect Poland:

“They knew very well that not a single immigrant would come to Poland for the first several years, because so many have poured in from Ukraine,” said Mørch.

He believes that it was in the interest of Law and Justice to demonize the EU, and everything that is not Polish, to draw power to themselves:

“If they could decide for themselves, then they would have announced Poland’s exit from the EU, to avoid any interference”, Mørch continued.

For this exact reason, they breathed a sigh of relief in Brussels, when the results of the election were published. Geographically, Poland is one of the larger membership countries in the European Union and they provide a huge trade market for other member states. Furthermore, Poland is, due to its size and resources, important when it comes to the distribution of future incoming immigrants: 

“Had Poland continued this line, the entire existence of the EU would have been threatened. A completely new structure had to be built”, stated Mørch. 

A return to a democratic Poland

Anna Werenberg, Poland Expert and graduate degree in Polish, believes that Poland will undergo a lot of changes under the new government. Both in regards to Poland as a nation, as well as when it comes to the cooperation with EU:

“They will re-establish Public Service media. It will be real media with real journalists. And then they will re-establish the freedom of the courts”, said Werenberg and continued:

“They have a completely different EU policy. They will to a much greater extent participate and be constructive in these EU collaborations. And help adopting things.”

She suggests that Tusk in general will try to avoid creating friction between the EU and Poland, by following the rules. Therefore, it is also likely that Poland no longer will be against the Migration Pact with Tusk in office. However, Jens Mørch believes that improving the terms for immigrants is way down on his list: 

“I think that you have plenty of challenges with your own rural population before you want to do anything for refugees. So, Tusk will not go against anything, and he has a European approach to it. But I don’t think making better conditions for refugees is at the top of his list”, said Mørch.

Meanwhile, Beata Kempa finds that Poles with the same nationalistic stances as PiS, seem to think that Tusk will be a problematic leader:

“We don’t know what the government of Tusk will do.”

She claims that a less strict immigration policy will be met with opposition and critique from the party she represents, as well as from the Polish population.

“Isn’t the Migration Pact also just symbolic politics?”

Anna Werenberg, however, believes that the reason why we won’t see any crucial changes in the terms for immigrants in Poland, and in Europe generally, is really about the construction of the Migration Pact:

“Isn’t the Migration Pact also just symbolic politics or what? Because how can anyone decide where the immigrants end up going?”, Werenberg asks.

She is in favor of the EU’s way of thinking, but has difficulties seeing how a forthcoming refugee crisis will differ from what we have been seeing in the past. Additionally, she argues that Poland does not attract immigrants, and therefore have not had problems with immigrants before the refugee crisis in 2015:

“The incoming immigrants would rather want to go to Germany or other richer countries.”

Werenberg also argues that Poland has taken over the immigration debate from their neighboring countries, as a result of more immigrants crossing the Polish borders in transit to reach their desired destination. The reason why PiS has been able to pursue a hardline policy on immigration is, according to her, an indication that the Poles have not been aware of the actual situation:

“After all, lots of refugees enter Poland, and then go on to Germany. And to Sweden. To all kinds of countries. This is what makes it so difficult to make this kind of policy in the EU”, stated Werenberg and continued:

“But I think that Donald Tusk wants to avoid making trouble. He wants to follow along. He wants to do as the EU would like. And then we can evaluate in two, three, four, five years, where those refugees end up. Despite that Migration Pact.”

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